This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Investors rotated aggressively back into Chinese property names after a local media report suggested regulators may be stepping back from one of the sector’s most restrictive debt controls. A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge tracking Chinese developers jumped as much as 11% on Thursday, marking its strongest session since July, as markets reacted to indications that some builders are no longer required to submit the monthly three red lines leverage metrics. Among the sharpest movers, Sunac China Holdings Ltd. (SNCNQ) surged as much as 31% in Hong Kong trading, while Country Garden Holdings Co. (CTRYY) climbed nearly 25%, highlighting how sensitive valuations remain to shifts in policy tone.
The move followed a report from Beijing News late Wednesday stating that several developers no longer need to file the debt indicators introduced in 2021 to rein in excessive leverage. Those three red lines monitored liabilities relative to assets, net debt versus equity, and cash coverage of short-term borrowings, and became a defining feature of Beijing’s property crackdown. Bosco Wu of Bank of East Asia said the change could have a greater effect on market sentiment than on near-term fundamentals, but may also signal a broader easing of restrictions as authorities attempt to stabilize a housing slump that has weighed on the economy.
Shares of China Vanke Co. (CHVKY), one of the country’s last major developers yet to default, rose 9.6% in Hong Kong, reinforcing the view that even incremental policy shifts can have outsized market impact. The three red lines framework had been a central pillar of Beijing’s deleveraging drive, which ultimately contributed to a record wave of defaults, leaving the industry under strain. Yan Yuejin of the Shanghai E-house China Real Estate Research Institute said the development could indicate that regulators’ priorities are shifting away from aggressive de-financialization and deleveraging toward broader risk prevention, a change investors are now starting to factor into prices.
